Analysis
of Openings and their Results
Back to the stats homepage
My pages are a
follow-up on Steve Turner’s Opening Moves Analysis.
Steve’s statistics focus on the popularity of Openings used on the Diplomacy
2000 site. Here the main focus is on the final game results in relation to the
Openings used. This is the third update. The two previous updates in 2002 and
2003, both times I used a database containing games that were spoiled by
Anarchies and/or NMRs in A1901. For this 2005 update I have used a database of
118 games with NO-Anarchies and/or NO NMRs in A1901. All games are regular
games, that is no gunboat and no tournament games are used. For all the 118
games I have found the relevant moves and results in the Games Index. All games
finished before March 2005.
Every one of the
seven powers has its own page containing statistics about the 3 most popular
openings used and their final results, trends in popularity and results over the years. Also the most important 1901 Hotspots all have
their own page. You can find the
relevant links at the bottom of every page
Let’s start with
having a general look at each country and how the final results are distributed
among the seven powers.
|
Result |
Win |
Draw |
Survival |
Elimination |
Total |
|
5 |
31 |
23 |
59 |
118 |
|
|
4 % |
26% |
20 % |
50 % |
100 % |
|
|
5 |
49 |
28 |
36 |
118 |
|
|
4 % |
41 % |
24 % |
31 % |
100 % |
|
|
7 |
39 |
34 |
38 |
118 |
|
|
6 % |
33 % |
29 % |
32 % |
100 % |
|
|
4 |
36 |
36 |
42 |
118 |
|
|
3 % |
31 % |
31 % |
36 % |
100 % |
|
|
7 |
40 |
38 |
33 |
118 |
|
|
6 % |
34 % |
32 % |
28 % |
100 % |
|
|
6 |
36 |
39 |
37 |
118 |
|
|
5 % |
31 % |
32 % |
31 % |
100 % |
|
|
5 |
35 |
37 |
41 |
118 |
|
|
4 % |
30 % |
31 % |
35 % |
100 % |
|
|
Total |
39 |
266 |
235 |
286 |
826 |
|
Average |
5 % |
32 % |
28 % |
35 % |
100 % |
The most common
results for each country are highlighted. The most astonishing fact is that only
half of all Austria players gets some kind of positive result (Win, Draw,
Survival). Other interesting facts are:
-
Italy having the best chance of still being around at the end of the game.
-
England’s draw rating being significantly higher than its survival rating.
- With
the exception of Austria all countries have a better than average draw rating.
-
Austria and England being the only two countries with a below average survival
rating.
When we take all Positve
Results (Win, Draw, Survival) together for each country and then compare them
with the average and with the 2003 results we get the following table:
|
|
2003 |
2005 |
||
|
Positive Result |
+/- Average |
Positive Result |
+/- Average |
|
|
|
48 % |
- 10 % |
50 % |
- 15 % |
|
|
62 % |
+ 4 % |
69 % |
+ 4 % |
|
|
65 % |
+ 7 % |
68 % |
+ 3 % |
|
|
56 % |
- 2 % |
64 % |
- 1 % |
|
|
62 % |
+ 4 % |
72 % |
+ 7 % |
|
|
61 % |
+ 3 % |
69 % |
+ 4 % |
|
|
51 % |
- 7 % |
65 % |
0 % |
|
Total Average |
58 % |
0 |
65 % |
0 |
The 7 points
increase in the Total Average positive result between 2003 and 2005 is the
effect of not having any Anarchy spoiled games in the 2005 database. Where most
country averages rise along the lines of the total average, Austria falls even
further behind the Total Average. Turkey’s average has improved the most from
an underachiever to Total Average.
So far for the
general introduction. Click on the
following links for a more in depth analysis of each country or topic.
AUSTRIA ENGLAND FRANCE GERMANY
You can mail all your ideas, comments,
suggestions, questions, opinions to Cies de Theije at cies@planet.nl
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